Summary
Nintendorecently published anend-of-year reportfor the fiscal year ending March 2025, detailing the company’s financial performance over the last fiscal year and expectations for the upcoming fiscal year, which will overlap with the first year of theSwitch 2’s release.
Nintendo expects to sell 15 million units by the end of March 2026, with 45 million software sales. Given the widespread excitement for the upcoming console, many feel Nintendo’s projection is conservative.
Humble Estimates
The original Nintendo Switch sold almost 18 million units in the first year of its release. While the original Switch was released after the Wii U, a console with a disappointing lifetime commercial performance, the Switch 2 is the successor to one of the best-selling consoles ever. With this in mind, you’d expect the anticipation surrounding the Switch 2 to be higher than it was for the original Switch, which anecdotally appears to be the case.
Following the release of Nintendo’s forecast, company chief executive officer Shuntaro Furukawa offered an explanation for the modest sales forecast at ashareholder Q&A(translated byAutomaton).
“We’ve set projected sales for the Nintendo Switch 2 in the ongoing fiscal year at 15 million units,” Furukawa explained. “This figure is based on a target comparable to sales of the original Nintendo Switch during the 10-month period from its launch in March 2017, to the end of December the same year. The sales projection was not determined based on limitations of our production capacity. The situation with US tariffs and concerns about economic downturn have also not affected our forecast. In order to achieve the target of 15 million, we will need to manufacture even more units than that.”
Furukawa elaborated on the sales projection, saying it’s primarily due to the high price of the Switch 2 — “Since the Switch 2 is priced higher than the original Switch, we recognise there will be considerable hurdles in achieving the console’s widespread adoption in the early stages.”
The Switch 2 is considerably more expensive than the original Switch. The console is set to cost $449.99 in the United States, $150 more expensive than the original Switch’s launch pricing. The price of Switch 2 games also sparked controversy, withmany fans unhappywith the $80 price tag on the upcoming Mario Kart World.
The Nintendo Switch 2 is set to release on June 5 in most territories.
